Weekly Macro Minute

Donald and Charmaine Cooley authored this issue’s devotional. They have served the Lord together for 35 years.

My calling to the ministry came in 1974. I began full-time work in a Southern Baptist church in 1985. In 1995, I was called to pastor Hart Haven Baptist Church in Jacksonville, Florida. Until 2023, I had never heard of Mission:Dignity, but what a blessing this ministry is for church staff members!

Ephesians 4:32 (KJV) says: And be ye kind one to another, tenderhearted, forgiving one another, even as God for Christ’s sake hath forgiven you.

This life verse has guided both my personal and ministerial life. In my first church, I served as youth pastor. In the summer of 1995, my wife, who was the housekeeper, and I were fired and told to leave. For three months, we had no income except for her new job as a school assistant. Yet, through the kindness of several folks, we were able to pay our bills.

In December 1995, we were called to Hart Haven Baptist Church, a small congregation full of kind people. In July 2005, I was diagnosed with a malignant brain tumor. Surgery, radiation and chemo followed. I was out of the pulpit for weeks but still came to the office every day. Again, the kindness of our church members shone through. For six weeks, church members signed up to drive me an hour south each day for radiation treatments while my wife cared for our two grandsons. They were patient with me as I had some health difficulties.

After 25 years of pastoring, the long-term consequences of the tumor and treatment made it necessary to retire. By this time, my wife had retired from caregiving for grandchildren. So, being on a fixed income, financial issues were always a concern. A dear friend learned of Mission:Dignity and told us to apply for assistance. Through the kindness of many, many people, we have been blessed this past year with a monthly supplement to our expenses. It is such a special ministry of the Southern Baptist Convention, and our heartfelt thanks goes to everyone who contributes to this cause.

Where have you seen God’s sustaining kindness this year?

Small caps outperform as technology shares retreat

• U.S. equities finished mixed as disappointing technology earnings renewed scrutiny of AI-related capital spending and potential returns.
• The S&P 500^® fell 0.6%, while the Russell 2000^® gained 1.3%.
• Investors questioned whether elevated AI investment would translate into sustainable revenue growth, stronger margins and free cash flow.

October brings a shift in market leadership

• The S&P 500^® declined 0.9% during October, while the Russell 2000 gained 0.5%.
• Leadership moved away from mega-cap technology and AI-related companies as earnings reports brought renewed attention to capital spending and prospective returns.
• Oil rose approximately 7% during the month amid escalating Middle East supply risks.

Treasury yields decline on safe-haven demand

• Treasury yields moved lower as weakness in equities increased demand for bonds.
• The 10-year Treasury yield fell nine basis points to 4.91%, moving below 5%, while the 2-year declined 11 basis points to 4.57%.

Gold falls to a one-year low

• Gold declined below $4,000 per ounce as higher real yields continued to pressure the precious metal.
• The U.S. dollar was little changed for the week.

European equities outperform

• European stocks advanced despite the broader technology selloff, supported by their more diversified market composition.
• The European Central Bank held its deposit rate steady as regional inflation remained elevated and economic growth slowed.
• President Christine Lagarde announced plans to step down before the conclusion of her term.

Japan continues balance-sheet normalization

• The Bank of Japan held its policy rate steady but accelerated the planned sale of its exchange-traded fund holdings.
• The change represents another step in the central bank’s effort to normalize its balance sheet.

Chinese equities decline

• Chinese stocks moved lower as global technology weakness weighed on growth-oriented and AI-related companies.
• Investor sentiment remained cautious amid continued questions about technology spending and future returns.

Fed holds rates steady

• The Federal Reserve maintained its target range at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote.
• Two voting members favored a 25-basis-point increase as economic activity remained strong and inflation stayed elevated.

Economic growth accelerates

• Third-quarter real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate, exceeding expectations and accelerating from 2.2% in the second quarter.
• Investment, consumer spending and government spending contributed to the expansion.

Inflation remains above target

• Headline PCE inflation rose 0.5% in September and 3.6% year over year.
• Core PCE (ex. food and energy) increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% annually, keeping inflation well above the Fed’s target.

Labor and consumer data remain firm

• Initial jobless claims declined to 194,000, indicating layoffs remain limited.
• Consumer confidence rebounded, while durable goods orders increased 1.8% in September.
• Employment costs rose 3.4% over the past year, reflecting continued wage pressure.