Weekly Macro Minute

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GuideStone Capital Management Weekly Macro Minute

GuideStone® was originally established in 1918 to provide financial support and assistance for retired pastors and widows. Today, we continue to carry out that mission through the ministry of Mission:Dignity®. Here’s an encouraging devotional from one of our recipients:

Icon of a Bible
Icon of a BibleA Hope That Moves Us Forward

Psalm 39:7 (ESV)

Alex Tajeda authored this issue’s devotional. He served the Lord alongside his wife, Gladys, for 27 years.

In a devotional a few years ago, Joni Eareckson Tada shared, “Christians are a people of hope.” Mrs. Tada’s physical movements are limited because of a cervical fracture sustained in her youth. Over the years, managing this condition, she has learned that faith gives us proper insight into our daily lives, that God’s love impels us to love others and that there is a future hope to move us forward.

In contrast, many people live without hope, having placed their trust in uncertain and non-eternal things. Ephesians 2:12 (ESV) says, “Remember that you were at that time separated from Christ, alienated from the commonwealth of Israel and strangers to the covenants of promise, having no hope and without God in the world.

When people in the world lose hope, there is no remedy for them except to turn to the Lord. God, in his mercy, saves us from our circumstances, others and even ourselves. Paul and Silas were arrested, handed over to the authorities, flogged, and imprisoned. But in prison, they sang hymns to God at midnight, knowing their hope was not in vain.

The individual, without God, will always be motivated by vain or false hopes. God, however, is always truthful. Jesus spoke words of truth. His works and promises mark the path of true hope. One needs only to hear, accept and believe them.

David wrote, “And now, O Lord, for what do I wait? My hope is in you,” Psalm 39:7 (ESV). In the midst of all the loss in this world, we have hope for the glory of God. We can move forward or restart today on a new path towards hope in Christ.

How can you move forward in hope today?

Want more devotionals? Our 40-day devotional book written by our Mission:Dignity recipients is available to order here.


Across the Markets

U.S. equities rebounded after an early-week selloff following President Trump’s threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. His retraction on Tuesday was positively received by investors, and the S&P 500® Index was up 4.6% for the full week, including a 2% move higher on Thursday alone, reaching its highest level since the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. Small-cap stocks were also up, with the Russell 2000® Index posting a 4.1% return.

Corporate earnings releases came in better than expected this week, helping boost positive sentiment. According to data from FactSet, 73% of the companies that had reported first-quarter results through Friday morning had beaten consensus earnings expectations.

The Trump administration’s softer tone on tariffs and its stance towards Fed Chair Powell sent yields lower. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 15 basis points, from 4.41% on Monday to 4.26% by Friday. Credit rallied this week, with investment-grade spreads tightening to 103 basis points.

Gold prices peaked at over $3,500/oz but later declined as investors took profits and moved to riskier assets. Oil prices remained stable, ending the week at $63/bbl, with increased OPEC production balanced by new U.S. sanctions against Iran.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated its global economic forecasts, citing risks related to higher tariffs. The organization now projects a 2.8% annual GDP growth rate in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. Three months ago, before the recent increase in tariffs, the IMF had forecasted 3.3% growth rates for 2025 and 2026.

Due to U.S. trade tariffs, the German government reduced its GDP forecast for this year to stagnation, down from the 0.3% growth projected in January. However, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that while tariff uncertainty would slow economic growth, a eurozone recession is unlikely due to diversified trading relationships.

Mainland Chinese stocks rose this week on hopes of government stimulus to counter U.S. tariffs.

In the Economy

S&P Global’s flash reading of its April Purchasing Managers’ Index survey data showed that U.S. business activity growth reached its lowest level in 16 months. Manufacturing activity unexpectedly increased from 50.2 in March to 50.7, while services activity growth decreased significantly, reducing the overall Index to 51.2 from 53.5 in the previous month.

The University of Michigan’s final April Consumer Sentiment Index was 52.2, an improvement from the earlier estimate but still 8% lower than March. The report also showed that inflation expectations for the year ahead increased to 6.5% from 5% in March, the highest since 1981.

The Census Bureau reported a 9.2% increase in durable goods orders in March, the third consecutive monthly rise. This was mainly attributable to a surge in commercial aircraft orders ahead of tariffs. Without transportation, orders remained flat, indicating business caution amid economic and policy uncertainty.

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This information is prepared by GuideStone Capital Management, LLC®, a controlled affiliate of GuideStone Financial Resources®. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Diversification is not a guarantee against loss. This information does not represent any GuideStone® product. Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign, political and economic events.

The material represented has been obtained from sources we consider reliable, but which we cannot guarantee. It is subject to change without notice and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

All indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Index performance assumes no taxes, transaction costs, fees or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted equity index composed of approximately 500 U.S. companies representing all major industries. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of its constituents. “Standard & Poor’s®”, “S&P 500®”, “Standard & Poor’s 500” and “500” are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use by GuideStone.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure that larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the actual small-cap opportunity set. Frank Russell Company ("Russell") is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. "Russell®" is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell's express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. Index used with permission. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) measures consumer attitudes about the economy, personal finances, and business conditions. The Index is a monthly survey that provides insights into how consumers expect the economy to change in the future.

The S&P Global Composite PMI® is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index and tracks business trends across both manufacturing and service sectors. The Index is based on data collected from a representative panel of over 800 companies and follows variables such as sales, new orders, employment, inventories and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in business activity while below 50 points to contraction.