Weekly Macro Minute

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GuideStone Capital Management Weekly Macro Minute

GuideStone® was originally established in 1918 to provide financial support and assistance for retired pastors and widows. Today, we continue to carry out that mission through the ministry of Mission:Dignity®. Here’s an encouraging devotional from one of our recipients:

Icon of a Bible
Icon of a BibleFocus on Jesus

Hebrews 1:3 (CSB)

Doris Hinson authored this issue’s devotional. She served the Lord alongside her late husband, Homer, for 40 years.

There’s a darkness in this world that can distract us from Jesus, the light of the world. To combat this darkness, we must focus on who Jesus is, what he has done and what he continues to do, namely:

  • He was sent to earth by God, the Father
  • He gave his life for us
  • He loves us
  • Faith in him keeps us from being separated from God
  • He intercedes for us

I could go on, but the above items should be enough to spark gratitude!

The love of God is so great and wonderful! We praise and thank Jesus for obeying the Father’s will in coming to earth and dying on the cross for our sins. The Father and the Son have a great love for us. Let us love God in return with a heart of gratitude and thankfulness.

Our salvation and hope come from Jesus alone. May our reverence for him motivate us to follow him with all we have and seek to know him better. May we share his love with others as he has shared his love with us.

Take time today to thank Jesus for his love and faithfulness. Tell him you appreciate his intercession to God on our behalf and commit to seeking his presence. Remember his love as you call on him for help for yourself and others.

The Son is the radiance of God’s glory and the exact representation of his nature, sustaining all things by his powerful word. Hebrews 1:3 (CSB)

Want more devotionals? Our 40-day devotional book written by our Mission:Dignity recipients is available to order here.


Across the Markets

Stocks mixed as Federal Reserve cuts rates again
  • Fed delivered its third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, signaling a less hawkish stance.
  • S&P 500® fell 0.6% after hitting record highs mid-week, while Russell 2000® gained 1.2% on rate-sensitive small caps.
  • Rotation continued from AI-driven momentum stocks toward cyclical, value-oriented names.
Treasury yields diverge
  • 2-year yield fell to 3.53%, while 10-year rose to 4.19% and 30-year climbed to 4.85%, the highest since September.
  • Fed announced plans to buy $40 billion in short-dated Treasuries to stabilize liquidity after ending quantitative tightening.
Energy prices weaken
  • WTI crude fell 4% to $57.61 per barrel; prices are down approximately 20% year-to-date amid oversupply concerns.
Europe consolidates near highs
  • European equities slipped slightly for the week.
  • U.K. GDP contracted 0.1% in October, driven by declines in construction and services.
Japan benefits from weak yen
  • Equities rose as the yen held near ¥155 per USD.
China sees mixed inflation trends
  • Inflation rose 0.7% year-over-year, fastest since March 2024.
  • Producer prices declined 2.2% year-over-year for 38th consecutive month.

In the Economy

Labor market shows mixed signals
  • Job openings rose to 7.67 million, highest in five months; quits rate fell to 1.8%, lowest since 2020.
  • Initial jobless claims surged by 44,000 to 236,000, largest increase since March 2020, reflecting holiday volatility.
Fed policy outlook remains cautious
  • Target range now 3.50%–3.75%; officials project one additional cut in 2026.
  • Chairman Powell noted inflation remains elevated while the labor market softens.

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This information is prepared by GuideStone Capital Management, LLC®, a controlled affiliate of GuideStone Financial Resources®. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Diversification is not a guarantee against loss. This information does not represent any GuideStone® product. Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign, political and economic events.

The material represented has been obtained from sources we consider reliable, but which we cannot guarantee. It is subject to change without notice and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

All indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Index performance assumes no taxes, transaction costs, fees or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted equity index composed of approximately 500 U.S. companies representing all major industries. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of its constituents. “Standard & Poor’s®”, “S&P 500®”, “Standard & Poor’s 500” and “500” are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use by GuideStone.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure that larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the actual small-cap opportunity set. Frank Russell Company ("Russell") is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. "Russell®" is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell's express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. Index used with permission. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components. It provides a indication of the health of small businesses in the U.S., which account of roughly 50% of the nation's private workforce.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Index is a benchmark in oil pricing, representing the price of oil extracted in the United States, primarily from Texas and surrounding areas. WTI is widely used in the oil futures market for trading and contract settlements. The Index reflects the spot and futures prices for WTI crude oil as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchanges (NYMEX).

The PMI® (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is an indicator of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. The indicator is compiled and released monthly by ISM® (Institute for Supply Management), a nonprofit supply management organization. It is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions are expanding, staying the same, or contracting, as viewed by purchasing managers.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) measures consumer attitudes about the economy, personal finances, and business conditions. The Index is a monthly survey that provides insights into how consumers expect the economy to change in the future.