Weekly Macro Minute

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GuideStone Capital Management Weekly Macro Minute

GuideStone® was originally established in 1918 to provide financial support and assistance for retired pastors and widows. Today, we continue to carry out that mission through the ministry of Mission:Dignity®. Here’s an encouraging devotional from one of our recipients:

Icon of a Bible
Icon of a BibleA Miracle

Romans 8:28 (NASB 1995)

Jane Strickland authored this issue’s devotional. She served the Lord alongside her late husband, Walton, for 45 years.

Once, a long time ago, a vine grew on the bricks at the side of our garage. It was beautiful, with glossy green leaves. It grew tall and strong and, in time, added lovely fringed purple flowers. I enjoyed seeing the beautiful vine each morning as I left for work.

One day, to my surprise, I saw the vine was covered with scarlet caterpillars! The caterpillars were consuming the lovely purple flowers and the green leaves. I could not take time to remove the caterpillars because it would have made me late for work. (An elementary teacher should never be late.) When I arrived home that afternoon, I sadly observed no flowers or leaves except a few crumpled, dead brown leaves stuck to the brick. I reluctantly took down the strings which had supported the vines.

The spring days grew warmer, and shortly before school was dismissed for the summer, I hurried out to go to work and found our backyard full of gorgeous black butterflies with bright blue spots on their wings! The little brown capsules I had assumed were dead leaves had all broken open and had set the butterflies free! Wouldn’t you agree that only God could perform such a miracle? The green leaves and purple flowers fed the scarlet caterpillars, which spent the winter wrapped in brown blankets (chrysalises). At just the perfect time, beautiful black butterflies, trimmed in bright blue, emerged and performed their beautiful ballet, delighting us earth-bound humans!

Scripture says, “And we know that God causes all things to work together for good to those who love God, to those who are called according to His purpose.” Romans 8:28 (NASB 1995)

What seemingly dire situation can God transform in your life this week?

Want more devotionals? Our 40-day devotional book written by our Mission:Dignity recipients is available to order here.

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Across the Markets

Equities rally to new highs
  • S&P 500® rose 1.6%, hitting a record high; Russell 2000® added 0.3%.
  • Equal-weighted S&P 500® lagged cap-weighted by 130 basis points.
  • Tech led the sector gains, driven by Oracle’s 25.5% surge and AI momentum.
  • Utilities and Energy outperformed; Consumer Staples and Materials were flat to negative.
Bond markets strengthen on rate cut expectations
  • 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.06%, the lowest since April.
  • Investment-grade and high-yield corporates posted solid gains.
  • Credit spreads narrowed: Investment-grade to 74 basis points, high-yield to 270 basis points.
Gold and oil extend gains
  • Gold rose 1.0% to $3,681/oz, the fourth straight weekly gain.
  • WTI crude climbed 1.6% despite OPEC+ output increase.
Global equities follow U.S. lead
  • European Central Bank held rates at 2.0%, signaling policy is “in a good place.”
  • France saw political change as PM Bayrou was replaced by Sebastien Lecornu.
Asia sees mixed momentum
  • Japan equities jumped amid political transition and strong second quarter GDP (+2.2%).
  • China equities rose on tech optimism.
  • Deflation concerns persist as prices fell 0.4% year-over-year.

In the Economy

Inflation remains elevated
  • PPI slowed to 2.6% year-over-year; core PPI at 2.8%.
  • Trade services posted the largest margin decline since mid-2024.
  • CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year; core CPI (which excludes food and energy) held at 3.1%.
  • Shelter inflation eased, but core goods prices firmed.
Labor market weakens further
  • Payroll growth revised down by 911,000 for the year ending March 2025.
  • Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, the highest since Oct 2021.
  • Three-month average job gains fell to 29,000/month.
  • Consumer sentiment dropped to 55.4, the lowest in four months.
Federal Reserve expected to cut rates
  • Data supports a 25-basis point cut at the upcoming meeting.
  • Inflation remains above target, but focus shifts to labor and growth risks.

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This information is prepared by GuideStone Capital Management, LLC®, a controlled affiliate of GuideStone Financial Resources®. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Diversification is not a guarantee against loss. This information does not represent any GuideStone® product. Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign, political and economic events.

The material represented has been obtained from sources we consider reliable, but which we cannot guarantee. It is subject to change without notice and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

All indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Index performance assumes no taxes, transaction costs, fees or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted equity index composed of approximately 500 U.S. companies representing all major industries. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of its constituents. “Standard & Poor’s®”, “S&P 500®”, “Standard & Poor’s 500” and “500” are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use by GuideStone.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure that larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the actual small-cap opportunity set. Frank Russell Company ("Russell") is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. "Russell®" is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell's express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. Index used with permission. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Index is a benchmark in oil pricing, representing the price of oil extracted in the United States, primarily from Texas and surrounding areas. WTI is widely used in the oil futures market for trading and contract settlements. The Index reflects the spot and futures prices for WTI crude oil as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchanges (NYMEX).

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as a measure of the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The BLS calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and measures the average monthly change in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category.