Weekly Macro Minute

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GuideStone Capital Management Weekly Macro Minute

GuideStone® was originally established in 1918 to provide financial support and assistance for retired pastors and widows. Today, we continue to carry out that mission through the ministry of Mission:Dignity®. Here’s an encouraging devotional from one of our recipients:

Icon of a Bible
Icon of a BibleGod Provides for His Own

Psalm 37:25 (KJV)

Randall Ingram authored this issue’s devotional. He served the Lord alongside his wife, Pattie, for 41 years.

In my first church, Anderson Baptist Church, in Blue Springs, Alabama, we drove 60 miles to the church one way and then back. I don’t remember what they paid me. It was something like $60 or $75 a week — not much.

One week, we paid our tithe at church, bought what we could buy for groceries and gas to get back and forth, and had only $1 left, one dollar bill. So, we just prayed and asked the Lord to help that dollar get us through the week. When we got home from church, sitting on our step was a box with a ham in it and several other food items. That ham lasted all week. God provided for us, and I’ve never forgotten it.

Psalm 37:25 (KJV) says, “I have been young, and now am old, yet I have not seen the righteous forsaken.” My wife, Pattie, and I have had to be resilient through the years. We’ve done without a lot of things because we knew we couldn’t afford them, but we’ve always had what we needed through God’s blessings. God’s always provided through church people, churches or through organizations like Mission:Dignity. We haven’t missed many meals, as shown by our photo. And he’s blessed us when we’ve needed something specific. We may not always get the top of the line, but we’ve always got what we need. God provides for his own. Give praise to God today for providing for you.

Want more devotionals? Our 40-day devotional book written by our Mission:Dignity recipients is available to order here.


Across the Markets

Markets mixed as small caps retreat
  • Major U.S. indexes were mixed; the S&P 500® rose 0.4%, and the Russell 2000® declined more than 2% after January’s strong run.
  • Weak cloud-services growth pressured Microsoft and weighed on the broader tech sector.
Yield curve steepens
  • 30-year Treasury yield rose six basis points, while the 2-year yield fell seven basis points following a Federal Reserve meeting that signaled no new easing.
Commodities see sharp volatility
  • WTI crude surged over 7% to a four-month high, marking a sixth straight weekly gain.
  • Gold hit record highs before dropping nearly 10% from its Thursday peak; silver plunged 22.5% for the week, its steepest single-day drop since 1980.
  • Copper ended the week down 0.5% after rallying on Chinese real estate headlines.
Europe supported by improving data
  • European equities rose on upbeat earnings and resilient economic indicators.
  • Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% in 2025’s fourth quarter; full-year 2025 growth reached 1.5%.
  • Eurozone unemployment hit a record low of 6.2%.
Japan’s rally pauses
  • Japanese equities declined as questions about the sustainability of AI-driven tech spending emerged.
  • Yen strengthened mid-week; 10-year JGB yield rose to 2.26%, the highest since the late 1990s.
China cautious despite targeted support
  • Chinese equities ended the week roughly flat.
  • Regulators eased credit limits for select developers, but large housing inventories continue to weigh on sentiment.

In the Economy

Consumer confidence drops sharply
  • The Consumer Confidence Index® fell to 84.5, the lowest since 2014, driven by concerns over jobs, affordability and geopolitical tensions.
  • Short-term expectations fell well below levels historically associated with recession.
Labor market steady despite headlines
  • Initial jobless claims held near multi-year lows at approximately 209,000; continuing claims declined.
  • Several major companies (Amazon®, UPS®, Dow®, Pinterest®) announced layoffs as sector-specific adjustments continued.
Fed holds rates steady
  • Federal funds target remained 3.50–3.75%.
  • Chairman Powell emphasized policy is near neutral and future cuts will be data‑dependent; futures now price just two cuts in 2026.
Kevin Warsh nominated as next Fed Chair
  • President Trump announced plans to nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.
  • Markets reacted calmly; investors are watching how a Warsh-led Fed might approach late‑2026 policy and balance‑sheet strategy.

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This information is prepared by GuideStone Capital Management, LLC®, a controlled affiliate of GuideStone Financial Resources®. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Diversification is not a guarantee against loss. This information does not represent any GuideStone® product. Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign, political and economic events.

The material represented has been obtained from sources we consider reliable, but which we cannot guarantee. It is subject to change without notice and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

All indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Index performance assumes no taxes, transaction costs, fees or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted equity index composed of approximately 500 U.S. companies representing all major industries. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of its constituents. “Standard & Poor’s®”, “S&P 500®”, “Standard & Poor’s 500” and “500” are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use by GuideStone.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that Index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current Index membership. The Index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure that larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the actual small-cap opportunity set. Frank Russell Company (“Russell”) is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell’s express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. Index used with permission. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Index is a benchmark in oil pricing, representing the price of oil extracted in the United States, primarily from Texas and surrounding areas. WTI is widely used in the oil futures market for trading and contract settlements. The Index reflects the spot and futures prices for WTI crude oil as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchanges (NYMEX).

The Consumer Confidence Index® measures consumer attitudes and confidence regarding their financial prospects. The Index is issued by the Conference Board and is based on the Consumer Confidence Survey®. It measures and compares how consumers view the overall economy, business conditions, and labor market presently and over the next six months.