Weekly Macro Minute

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GuideStone Capital Management Weekly Macro Minute

GuideStone® was originally established in 1918 to provide financial support and assistance for retired pastors and widows. Today, we continue to carry out that mission through the ministry of Mission:Dignity®. Here’s an encouraging devotional from one of our recipients:

Icon of a Bible
Icon of a BibleWhat is My Purpose?

Psalm 139:16b (CSB)

Jeanetta Watson authored this issue’s devotional. She served the Lord alongside her late husband, Wendell, for 45 years.

Have you ever asked yourself, “What is my purpose?” I answer that question with the truth found in Scripture. I did not choose to be born, but God chose to create me in his own image for his purpose. Genesis 1:27 (CSB) says, “So God created man in his own image.” And he put us here to carry out a command in his name — to tell others about how he sent his only son to die for our salvation. Matthew 28:19-20 (CSB) says, “Go, therefore, and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, teaching them to observe everything I have commanded you.

I know that God’s purpose for me was to be a pastor’s wife for 45 years and a mother, grandmother and great-grandmother. But after 89 years on this earth, I sometimes don’t see my usefulness anymore. Whenever I feel that way, I head straight to Psalm 139:16b (CSB), which says, “All my days were written in your book and planned before a single one of them began.” This verse assures me that God will lead me until my purpose here on earth is done. Only then will he call me home.

So be assured that the same is true for you! God has a purpose for your life, every day of it.

Seek him in prayer today to discern that purpose and obey his leading.

Want more devotionals? Our 40-day devotional book written by our Mission:Dignity recipients is available to order here.


Across the Markets

U.S. equities were mixed on the week, with the S&P 500® Index snapping its nine-day winning streak last Monday and ultimately ending the week slightly lower, down 0.5%. Sector performance was mixed, with industrials and consumer discretionary the best performers and health care and communication services the worst. The health care sector, down 4.3%, lagged as the Trump administration advocated for most-favored-nation drug prices. Small-cap stocks were up for the fifth consecutive week, with the Russell 2000® Index posting a 0.1% gain.

It was another big week for first-quarter 2025 earnings, with 78% of companies beating EPS estimates, above the 10-year average. Revenue growth is 4.8%, with ten sectors showing year-over-year increases.

Treasuries showed mixed results, with the yield curve flattening and the 10-year benchmark yield ending at 4.38%. The dollar strengthened against most major currencies, gold rose 3.1% after two weekly declines, and oil was up 4.7% despite OPEC+ announcing higher output.

The U.S. and U.K. outlined a trade agreement, likely the first of several and the first since the Trump administration imposed global tariffs. Light on specifics, it maintains relatively high U.S. tariffs on U.K. exports, signaling tougher negotiations for less allied nations. Trade deals may remain conceptual, as detailed agreements typically take years.

There were limited signs of progress in the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan. The U.S. warned that a trade deal with Japan could take significantly more time to complete than the framework agreement with the U.K. that was announced during the week.

Chinese stocks rallied early in the week on news that U.S. and Chinese officials would travel to Switzerland for trade talks over the weekend. The central bank’s unexpected policy boost also added to positive sentiment.

In the Economy

The Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, citing solid economic growth, low unemployment, and slightly elevated inflation. The Federal Reserve noted increased risks of higher inflation and unemployment due to uncertainties from the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Markets expect no rate cuts until July, with a 51% probability of a reduction, as the Fed adopts a cautious, data-dependent approach.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in the post-meeting press conference that the Fed is in a “wait and see” mode, assessing the economic impacts of Trump’s tariffs, which may increase inflation, slow growth and raise unemployment. Powell noted potential challenges in balancing employment and price stability.

The ISM Services PMI for April increased to 51.6% from 50.8%, marking ten months of expansion. Three subindexes, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries, improved, while business activity stayed expansive at 53.7%. However, the prices index surged to 65.1%, a two-year high, driven by tariff impacts, signaling rising cost pressures in the services sector.

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This information is prepared by GuideStone Capital Management, LLC®, a controlled affiliate of GuideStone Financial Resources®. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Diversification is not a guarantee against loss. This information does not represent any GuideStone® product. Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign, political and economic events.

The material represented has been obtained from sources we consider reliable, but which we cannot guarantee. It is subject to change without notice and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

All indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Index performance assumes no taxes, transaction costs, fees or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted equity index composed of approximately 500 U.S. companies representing all major industries. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of its constituents. “Standard & Poor’s®”, “S&P 500®”, “Standard & Poor’s 500” and “500” are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use by GuideStone.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure that larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the actual small-cap opportunity set. Frank Russell Company ("Russell") is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. "Russell®" is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell's express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. Index used with permission. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an indicator of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. The indicator is compiled and released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), a nonprofit supply management organization. It is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions are expanding, staying the same, or contracting, as viewed by purchasing managers.