Weekly Macro Minute

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GuideStone Capital Management Weekly Macro Minute

GuideStone® was originally established in 1918 to provide financial support and assistance for retired pastors and widows. Today, we continue to carry out that mission through the ministry of Mission:Dignity®. Here’s an encouraging devotional from one of our recipients:

Icon of a Bible
Icon of a BibleThe Straight Path

Proverbs 3:5-6 (NASB)

Sam Broughton authored this issue’s devotional. He served the Lord alongside his wife, Virginia, for 38 years.

Trust in the Lord with all your heart, and do not lean on your own understanding. In all your ways acknowledge him, and he will make your paths straight. Proverbs 3:5-6 (NASB)

One of my summer jobs during my college years was in rural North Carolina. It is a beautiful state with lots of hills and trees, but I grew up an Oklahoma boy. After my summer of work, my friend and I drove 24 hours back to our school in Texas. I missed driving on straight roads and seeing sunrises and sunsets.

In the Middle East, where the book of Proverbs was written, those guys knew better than me about the joy of having a straight path. They had it rough, walking everywhere they went over rocky paths, up and down hills and valleys. Many would be caring for their livestock, and there wasn’t even a path to follow. Imagine how they must have felt when they finally came to a straight path!

This verse isn’t talking about physical paths but mental, emotional, and spiritual paths. We know exactly what Solomon, the writer of Proverbs, was talking about. Our most crooked and twisted paths come from our own “stinkin’ thinkin’.”

Years ago, there was a comic strip called Pogo. The most famous line from the comic strip series came when Pogo announced to another character, “We have met the enemy, and he is us!” As you read this devotional today, you may already be walking the walk and talking the talk. Thank you and be encouraged to carry on!

Another reader may have to admit that your life is a mess, your paths are crooked as they can be, with potholes everywhere, and the people you love are getting hurt. Please don’t lean on your own understanding! That’s what got you into this mess! Your Heavenly Father loves you and wants your life path to be straight so that you can be a blessing to those around you. Don’t just “lean” on the Lord, put all your weight on him. ”Trust in the Lord with all your heart.” Don’t act like things are OK when they’re not. “In all your ways acknowledge him.” Get your heart right and give the Lord every part of your life. The Lord will take care of the straight path.

How is your “thinking path” doing? Are there some twists and turns that shouldn’t be there? Do you ever feel like you’re dealing with the same problems over and over? Is your heart in the right place?

Take it all to the Lord in prayer. He will make your paths straight!

Want more devotionals? Our 40-day devotional book written by our Mission:Dignity recipients is available to order here.


Across the Markets

U.S. stocks posted substantial weekly gains, fueled by optimism after the United States and China agreed to ease trade tensions significantly. The S&P 500® rose 5.3%, now approximately 3% below its record close from February. Meanwhile, the small-cap focused Russell 2000® Index extended its winning streak to six consecutive weeks, rising 4.5% for the week.

U.S. Treasury yields rose over the week as investors scaled back expectations for interest rate cuts. The 2-year yield climbed 12 basis points to end the week at 4.0%, while the 10-year benchmark yield increased six basis points to 4.4%.

Gold prices declined for the third time in four weeks, signaling a pause in the metal’s strong year-to-date rally. The Gold New York Spot prices closed Friday at $3,240 per ounce, down 2.6% for the week and well below the record high of over $3,431 in April.

The U.K. economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, driven by growth in services, business investment, and exports.

Japan’s economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, marking its first decline in a year. The contraction was primarily attributed to weak private consumption, escalating concerns over trade tensions with the United States, and weakening export demand.

In the Economy

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China eased significantly as both agreed to suspend most of the recently imposed tariffs for 90 days while negotiations continued. U.S. tariffs on most Chinese goods will be reduced from 145% to 30%, while China’s tariffs on U.S. imports will be lowered from 125% to 10%.

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in April and 2.3% year-over-year, the slowest annual pace since February 2021, indicating some easing in inflation pressures. The core Consumer Price Index (ex. food and energy) also rose 0.2% month-over-month and remains elevated at 2.8% annually. The data suggests that while President Trump’s new tariffs are starting to take effect, businesses may be absorbing some of the additional costs.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in May, its second-lowest reading on record, reflecting heightened concerns over inflation and the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies. One-year consumer inflation expectations rose to 7.3%, the highest since 1981. Most survey responses were collected before the U.S.–China announcement of a temporary pause on tariffs.

U.S. retail sales rose just 0.1% in April, a sharp slowdown from the revised 1.7% surge in March. The deceleration was mainly due to consumers pulling forward purchases into March ahead of expected tariffs, particularly on cars and imported goods.

The U.S. lost its final top-tier credit rating on Friday as Moody’s downgraded the country from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising government debt and a growing interest burden. This move aligns Moody’s with Fitch and S&P Global, both of which had already rated the U.S. below triple A. The downgrade came over a year after Moody shifted its outlook on the U.S. to negative.

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This information is prepared by GuideStone Capital Management, LLC®, a controlled affiliate of GuideStone Financial Resources®. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Diversification is not a guarantee against loss. This information does not represent any GuideStone® product. Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign, political and economic events.

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Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted equity index composed of approximately 500 U.S. companies representing all major industries. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of its constituents. “Standard & Poor’s®”, “S&P 500®”, “Standard & Poor’s 500” and “500” are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use by GuideStone.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure that larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the actual small-cap opportunity set. Frank Russell Company ("Russell") is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. "Russell®" is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell's express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. Index used with permission. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as a measure of the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The BLS calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) measures consumer attitudes about the economy, personal finances, and business conditions. The Index is a monthly survey that provides insights into how consumers expect the economy to change in the future.