Weekly Macro Minute

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GuideStone Capital Management Weekly Macro Minute

GuideStone® was originally established in 1918 to provide financial support and assistance for retired pastors and widows. Today, we continue to carry out that mission through the ministry of Mission:Dignity®. Here’s an encouraging devotional from one of our recipients:

Icon of a Bible
Icon of a BibleKaleo

Philippians 1:6 (CSB)

Bruce Swetnam authored this issue’s devotional. He served the Lord alongside his wife, Nancy, for 38 years.

Twenty years ago, I sat down with several youth pastors in our community to explore developing a citywide youth outreach event. This event would coincide with the start of the new school year.

Over the next several weeks, we began to dream, share, pray, and seek the Lord’s direction for launching this outreach weekend. Out of these meetings, a youth outreach weekend was born. We named it Kaleo, which means “God calls.”

For the next fifteen years, Kaleo became a spiritual focal point for the churches of our community.

I can close my eyes as I travel back through the corridors of time and still hear 200 young people lifting their voices in worship and praise.

Today, I believe there are young adults across the Pacific Northwest who became Christ-followers through the ministry of Kaleo. They have laid claim to that rich biblical promise:

I am sure of this, that he who started a good work in you will carry it on to the completion until the day of Christ Jesus. Philippians 1:6 (CSB).

Over the next 15 years of Kaleo, the Holy Spirit would move to call young people to commit their lives to Christ. As I move into the winter season of my life, I am grateful to have had a small part in a weekend where life-changing decisions were made that marked an eternal difference in the lives of so many young people.

What memories of serving Christ can you make today?

Want more devotionals? Our 40-day devotional book written by our Mission:Dignity recipients is available to order here.

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Across the Markets

Equities post mixed results
  • S&P 500® rose 0.7%, while Russell 2000® fell 1.4%.
  • Market breadth remained narrow with only four of eleven sectors advancing.
October delivers solid returns
  • S&P 500® rose 2.3% for the month, led by Technology (+6.2%).
  • AI investment, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and easing trade tensions supported gains.
Yields rise on Fed uncertainty
  • 10-year Treasury yield climbed 10 basis points to 4.09% following Fed Chairman Powell’s comments.
  • Rate cut expectations for December were tempered.
Gold declines after record highs
  • Gold fell to $4,003/oz, ending a two-week slide from its $4,356 peak.
  • Technical signals pointed to overbought conditions.
Oil rebounds on sanctions news
  • WTI crude rose 6.0% to $61.78/barrel after U.S. sanctions on Russian producers.
  • Despite gains, oil remains down 11.5% year-to-date.
European Central Bank holds rates steady as inflation eases
  • Inflation fell to 2.1% in October, near target.
  • Eurozone Q3 GDP rose 1.3% year-over-year, boosted by Spain’s 2.8% growth.
Japan holds rates, inflation exceeds target
  • Bank of Japan kept rates at 0.5%; inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year, above expectations.
  • Future tightening remains possible.
China posts mixed equity and economic data
  • Manufacturing fell, marking the seventh month of contraction.

In the Economy

Fed cuts rates amid shutdown uncertainty
  • The Fed lowered its policy rate to 3.75%–4.00%; decision was not unanimous.
  • Powell pushed back on December cut expectations, citing data delays.
Quantitative tightening to end December 1
  • Fed announced quantitative tightening will conclude, citing shift from “abundant” to “ample” liquidity.
U.S.–China trade truce reached
  • China paused rare earth export controls; U.S. reduced fentanyl-related tariffs.
  • Soybean purchases and docking fee suspensions also agreed.
Consumer confidence dips again
  • Conference Board Index fell to 94.6, driven by inflation and labor market concerns.

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This information is prepared by GuideStone Capital Management, LLC®, a controlled affiliate of GuideStone Financial Resources®. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Diversification is not a guarantee against loss. This information does not represent any GuideStone® product. Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign, political and economic events.

The material represented has been obtained from sources we consider reliable, but which we cannot guarantee. It is subject to change without notice and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

All indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Index performance assumes no taxes, transaction costs, fees or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted equity index composed of approximately 500 U.S. companies representing all major industries. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of its constituents. “Standard & Poor’s®”, “S&P 500®”, “Standard & Poor’s 500” and “500” are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use by GuideStone.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure that larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the actual small-cap opportunity set. Frank Russell Company ("Russell") is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. "Russell®" is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell's express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. Index used with permission. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Index is a benchmark in oil pricing, representing the price of oil extracted in the United States, primarily from Texas and surrounding areas. WTI is widely used in the oil futures market for trading and contract settlements. The Index reflects the spot and futures prices for WTI crude oil as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchanges (NYMEX).

The Consumer Confidence Index® measures consumer attitudes and confidence regarding their financial prospects. The Index is issued by the Conference Board and is based on the Consumer Confidence Survey®. It measures and compares how consumers view the overall economy, business conditions, and labor market presently and over the next six months.